WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (DANAS) WARNING 
NR 35//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 111200Z5 TO 141200Z8 SEP 01.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
111130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR REPORTS AND SYNOPTIC 
DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA.
   B. TS 19W IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM CURRENTLY 
TRACKING OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. TS 19W SHOULD CONTINUE ON A 
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE MOVING MORE 
EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ABOVE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED 
EAST OF JAPAN. THE DYNAMIC MODELS NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), JMA 
GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK WITH SOME DISCREPANCY ON SPEED AFTER 
TURNING MORE EASTWARD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS 
OF THESE FIVE MODELS AND PERSISTENCE.
   C. TS 19W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLIES AND 
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS HINDER CONVECTION. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION 
SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE 
SIZE SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/MAYER/TON//
BT
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