WDPN31 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (DANAS) WARNING NR 23// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 081200Z1 TO 111200Z5 SEP 01. A. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTHEAST OF KYOTO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 TO 115 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A 23 NM EYE. B. AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL HIGH HEIGHT CENTER SITUATED EAST OF JAPAN SHOULD INFLUENCE THE TRACK OF TY 19W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEN, TY 19W WILL INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN TURNING THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. NOGAPS (NGPS), THE UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR) MODEL, JMA TYPHOON (JTYM) MODEL, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS (BAMS) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE JMA GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM) MODEL RECURVES THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. JTYM SPEEDS UP THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. JTWC ATTRIBUTES COMPENSATING ERRORS TO EACH MODEL UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE EAST OF HONSHU, THUS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE MID- LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE FOUR MODELS, BLENDED WITH PERSISTENCE. C. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM RUNS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD EAST OF JAPAN. AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER HONSHU AT THE 48 HOUR POINT, RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/PARKER/EDBERG//