WDPN31 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (DANAS) WARNING NR 19// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 071200Z0 TO 101200Z4 SEP 01. A. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM SOUTHEAST OF KYOTO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 127 KNOTS. A 071023Z3 SSM/I PASS DEPICTED A TIGHT, SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A (APPROX) 8 NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A PRIMARY BANDING FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. B. AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL HIGH HEIGHT CENTER SITUATED EAST OF JAPAN SHOULD INFLUENCE THE TRACK OF TY 19W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEN, INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TY 19W MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. NOGAPS (NGPS), THE JMA GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM) MODEL, JMA TYPHOON (JTYM) MODEL, THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS-NAVY (GFDN) MODEL, AND THE UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR) MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO. THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS (BAMS) REVEAL A POLEWARD BIAS COMPARED TO THE CONSENSUS. IN TURN, THE BAMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE THE MOST ACCURATE IN TERMS OF TRACK ORIENTATION BUT NOT NECESSARILY IN SPEED OF ADVANCE. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON THE FIVE MODELS (NGPS, JGSM, JTYM, GFDN, AND EGRR) WHILE HEDGING TOWARD THE BAMS. C. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, REINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM RUNS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGGED TO BE OVER THE COAST OF JAPAN. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/BALDINGER/HARRISON//