WDPN32 PGTW 271500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W WARNING 
NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 271200Z2 TO 301200Z6 AUG 01.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM 
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING 
AROUND SOUTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS 
PRODUCTS AND THE CURRENT 200MB ANALYSIS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS 
WITHIN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
   B. TD 17W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE 
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. NOGAPS 
(NGPS), THE UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR) MODEL, AND THE JMA GLOBAL (JGSM)
MODEL ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE JMA TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM) AND THE 
NAVY GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS (GFDN) MODEL BOTH LOSE THE SYSTEM 
AFTER 36 HOURS. NGPS AND JGSM ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD, 
WHILE EGRR HAS A SLOWER TRACK IN THE SAME DIRECTION. THE NUMERICAL
CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF FIVE MODELS TO 24 HOURS, AND THREE MODELS 
(NGPS, EGRR, AND JGSM) THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A NUMERICAL CONSENSUS, ADJUSTED BY 
MODEL FIELD ANALYSIS, AND BLENDED WITH THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. 
   C. TD 17W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UNDER THE 
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE 
SIZE SYSTEM. 
   E.  THE JTWC WEBSITE HAS CHANGED TO:
HTTPS://WWW.NPMOC.NAVY.MIL/JTWC.HTML. THIS CHANGE IS FOR SECURITY
REASONS ONLY. THE CONTENT OF THE WEBSITE HAS NOT CHANGED.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY//