WDPN32 PGTW 270300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W WARNING NR 01// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 270000Z9 TO 300000Z3 AUG 01. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS WITHIN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. B. TD 17W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OBJECTIVE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE NOT INITIALIZING ON THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, FIELD ANALYSIS OF NOGAPS (NGPS), THE UK-MET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODEL, AND THE JMA GLOBAL (JGSM) MODEL. ALL REVEAL A WEAK CIRCULATION THAT TRACKS NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON FIELD ANALYSIS BLENDED WITH THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. C. TD 17W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM. E. THE JTWC WEBSITE HAS CHANGED TO: HTTPS://WWW.NPMOC.NAVY.MIL/JTWC.HTML. THIS CHANGE IS FOR SECURITY REASONS ONLY. THE CONTENT OF THE WEBSITE HAS NOT CHANGED. FORECAST TEAM: COX/VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY//