WDPN31 PGTW 021500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 
27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 021200Z5 TO 040000Z4 SEP 01.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (WUTIP), LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE 
KURIL ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS DURING THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7 INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS.  
   B. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETED OVER THE NEXT 6 
HOURS. NOGAPS, THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS-NAVY REGIONAL MODEL, 
THE JMA TYPHOON AND GLOBAL MODELS, THE UK-MET OFFICE GLOBAL-GRID 
POINT AND THE AVN ALL INDICATE COMPOUND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION 
(BAROCLINIC SYSTEM MERGING WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE) EARLY IN THE 
PERIOD WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING OFF OF KAMCHATKA. 
THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF THE ABOVE SIX MODELS. THE JTWC 
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED CONSENSUS AND SCENARIO.
   C. NWP INDICATES DEEPENING/REDEVELOPMENT AS AN EXTRATROPICAL 
SYSTEM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE BERING SEA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND 
CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SYSTEM UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/LEEJOICE/BALDINGER/HARRISON//