WDPN31 PGTW 311500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 19// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 311200Z7 AUG 01 TO 031200Z6 SEP 01. A. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (WUTIP) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ELONGATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION, INDICATIVE OF THE EARLY STAGES OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. B. TY 16W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. NOGAPS (NGPS), THE JMA TYPHOON (JTYM) AND GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM) MODEL, THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN) MODEL AND THE UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR) MODEL ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK, BUT DIVERGE ON SPEED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NGPS, JGSM, AND GFDN TRACK THE SYSTEM SLOWLY, WHICH JTWC ATTRIBUTES TO INSUFFICIENT INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IN THE MODEL FIELDS. JTYM AND EGRR ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS INFLUENCED BY MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF FIVE MODELS (NGPS, JTYM, JGSM, GFDN, AND EGRR). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS PERSISTENCE WITH THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. C. TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: COX/VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY//