WDPN31 PGTW 301500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 301200Z6 AUG 01 TO 021200Z5 SEP 01.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (WUTIP) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A 
301130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. ENHANCED 
INFRARED ANIMATION REVEALS A DIMINISHING EYE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. TY 16W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. NOGAPS (NGPS), 
THE JMA TYPHOON (JTYM) AND GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM) MODEL, THE 
GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN) MODEL AND THE UK-MET OFFICE 
(EGRR) MODEL ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK, BUT DIVERGE ON SPEED, 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NGPS AND GFDN TRACK THE SYSTEM SLOWLY, 
WHICH JTWC ATTRIBUTES TO INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE 
PHILIPPINE SEA. JGSM AND EGRR ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS 
AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE NUMERICAL 
CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF FIVE MODELS (NGPS, JTYM, JGSM, GFDN, AND 
EGRR). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS PERSISTENCE WITH THE BETA 
ADVECTION MODELS INITIALLY, AND THEN MERGES WITH THE NUMERICAL 
CONSENSUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   C. TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL 
RATE.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE 
SIZE SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY//