WDPN31 PGTW 291500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 291200Z4 AUG TO 011200Z4 SEP 01.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (WUTIP) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM 
EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS. ENHANCED 
INFRARED ANIMATION AND A RECENT TRMM PASS DEPICT A (APPROX) 
15 NM ROUND EYE. 
   B. TY 16W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A REVERSE 
ORIENTED MONSOON TROUGH. FOR THE MOST PART, NWP (JMA GLOBAL AND 
TYPHOON, GFDN, AFWA MM5, AND AVN) ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A 
INCREASINGLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE TROUGH AND 
ULTIMATELY ABOVE THE RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ONLY OUTLIERS ON 
THIS SCENARIO ARE NOGAPS AND COAMPS WHICH CONTINUE TO STAY TO THE 
RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED AND SIGNIFICANTLY 
SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO 
MERGE THE SYSTEM IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WITH A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION 
OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THIS IS CAUSING THE REDUCED SOA AND 
EQUATORWARD BIAS. UKMET CONTINUES TO DEVIATE TO THE LEFT (MOST 
POLEWARD TRACK) OF THE CONSENSUS AS WELL. THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE ON 
THIS MODEL IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS 
WHICH IS CREATING A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS (EIGHT) OF ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED 
MODELS.
   C. TY 16W PEAKED 6 HOURS AGO AT 130 KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT INCREASES IN LATITUDE THROUGH 
THE PERIOD.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND 
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/LEEJOICE/BALDINGER/HARRISON//