WDPN31 PGTW 280300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (WUTIP) WARNING 
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 280000Z0 TO 310000Z4 AUG 01.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (WUTIP) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 272330Z7
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYE FEATURE 
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
   B. TY 16W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. 
NOGAPS (NGPS), THE JMA TYPHOON (JTYM) AND GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM)
MODELS AND THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN) MODEL ARE IN 
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO 
THE NORTHEAST. THE UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR) MODEL IS AN OUTLIER, SHOWING 
A SHARP POLEWARD TURN EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, POSSIBLY CAUSED 
BY OVER-DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NOGAPS IS 
FARTHEST EAST OF THE MODELS DISCUSSED, WITH A MORE EAST-WEST 
ORIENTED RIDGE STEERING THE SYSTEM. BAROTROPIC ADVECTION MODELS 
SUPPORT A NORTHEAST TRACK. THE SELECTIVE CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF FOUR 
MODELS (NGPS, JTYM, JGSM, AND GFDN). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED 
ON THE SELECTIVE CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PERSISTENCE.  
   C. TY 16W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MID-PERIOD IN 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT 
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE 
SIZE SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/MAYER/TON//
BT
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