WDPN31 PGTW 271500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 271200Z2 TO 301200Z6 AUG 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (WUTIP) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 7 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS AND THE 200MB SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. B. TS 16W IS TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. NOGAPS (NGPS), THE JMA TYPHOON (JTYM) AND GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM) MODEL, THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN) MODEL AND THE UK- MET OFFICE (EGRR) MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS INITIALIZED WELL BY ALL THE MODELS, EXCEPT FOR NGPS WHICH ANALYZES THE CYCLONE TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE CURRENT LOCATION. HOWEVER, IT AGREES WITH THE NORTHEAST MOTION OF THE OTHER MODELS. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF FIVE MODELS (NGPS, JTYM, JGSM, GFDN, AND EGRR). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PERSISTENCE. C. TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. E. THE JTWC WEBSITE HAS CHANGED TO: HTTPS://WWW.NPMOC.NAVY.MIL/JTWC.HTML. THIS CHANGE IS FOR SECURITY REASONS ONLY. THE CONTENT OF THE WEBSITE HAS NOT CHANGED. FORECAST TEAM: COX/VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY//