WDPN31 PGTW 220300  
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (PABUK) 
WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 220000Z4 TO 250000Z7 AUG 01.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35, 45, AND 49 KNOTS. A 
220000Z4 OMAEZAKI SYNOPTIC REPORT DEPICTS 982 MB NEAR THE CYCLONE 
CENTER. SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER WITH CONVECTION SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  
   B. TS 14W (PABUK) IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST, TRACKING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD INTO 
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY THE APPROACH OF A 
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. NOGAPS (NGPS), THE JMA GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL 
(JGSM), THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN) MODEL, THE JMA 
TYPHOON (JTYM) MODEL, AND THE UK-MET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODEL, ARE IN 
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. GFDN, JGSM 
AND EGRR LOSE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS. NGPS AND JTYM 
CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES 
EXTRATROPICAL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE NUMERICAL 
CONSENSUS OF ALL FIVE MODELS. TS 14W SHOULD TRACK MORE RAPIDLY AS IT 
MOVES NORTH OF THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH 
THE APPROACHING MID LATITUDE TROUGH.      
   C. TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN MARGINAL CONDITIONS CREATED BY 
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLER AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND LAND 
INTERACTION. 
   D. THE FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AND A 
RECENT QUIKSCAT GALE WIND ANALYSIS.  
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/MORRIS/EDBERG//