WDPN31 PGTW 210300  
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 14W (PABUK) WARNING 
NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 210000Z3 TO 240000Z6 AUG 01.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM 
SOUTH OF KYOTO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 202330Z0 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC 
REPORTS. A MURUOTOMISAKI 210000Z3 OBSERVATION REPORTED 60 KNOT 
SUSTAINED, TEN MINUTE AVERAGED WIND SPEEDS AND A PRESSURE OF 976 MB. 
SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TIGHTLY 
WOUND, WHILE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS ALMOST TOTALLY 
DISSIPATED.      
   B. TY 14W (PABUK) IS MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL 
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL JAPAN AND IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, NOGAPS (NGPS), JMA 
GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (JGSM), JMA TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM), GEOPHYSICAL 
FLUID-DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN) MODEL, AND THE UK-MET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODEL 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND SPEED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
HOWEVER, NGPS AND GFDN HAVE A SLIGHT WESTWARD BIAS AT THE 48-HOUR 
POINT. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A LEE SIDE LOW OVER WESTERN JAPAN. THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A NUMERICAL CONSENSUS OF THE FIVE 
MODELS (NGPS, JGSM, JTYM, EGRR AND GFDN) BLENDED WITH PERSISTENCE.     
   C. TY 14W IS EXPECTED SLOWLY WEAKEN IN MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS CREATED BY WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER AIR 
ENTRAINMENT. AFTER THE 24-HOUR POINT THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN MORE 
QUICKLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND.
   D. THE FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AND RECENT 
QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA.  
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/MORRIS/EDBERG//