WDPN31 PGTW 200300  
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 14W (PABUK) WARNING 
NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 200000Z2 TO 230000Z5 AUG 01.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH 
OF SHIKOKU ISLAND, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 192330Z8 
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 55-NM 
IRREGULAR EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION CYCLING DIURNALLY. ANIMATED WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW.     
   B. TY 14W (PABUK) IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL JAPAN, AND REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TY 14W IS FORECAST TO 
GRADUALLY RECURVE INTO THIS DEVELOPING WEAKNESS BY THE 12-24 HOUR 
POINT. THE AVAILABLE PRIMARY DYNAMIC AIDS (FIVE: NOGAPS, JMA GLOBAL 
SPECTRAL MODEL (JGSM), JMA TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM), GEOPHYSICAL FLUID-
DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN) MODEL, AND THE UK-MET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODEL) ARE 
IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND SPEED THROUGH 48 HOURS. 
AFTERWARDS, THE DYNAMIC AIDS DIVERGE AND SHOW TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS. 
THE JTYM, EGRR, AND GFDN MODELS SHOW A FASTER, MORE POLEWARD TRACK 
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN JAPAN COAST. HOWEVER, THESE MODELS SHOW 
POSSIBLE FALSE INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AFTER THE 48 
HOUR POINT. NOGAPS AND JGSM SHOW A SLOWER, MORE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK 
ALONG THE EASTERN JAPAN COAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DYNAMIC 
AIDS CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS, BUT IS BIASED EAST THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.     
   C. TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS 
AS IT TRACKS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, UNDER THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 
32.0N5 LATITUDE. THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL INITIALLY AID IN 
INTENSIFICATION, BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND HINDER FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE 36 HOUR POINT. TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE 
LANDFALL NEAR THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POINT, AND SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY 
UNDER INCREASING SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND.
   D. THE FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AND RECENT 
QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA.  
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/HARRISON/CUTMAN//



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