WDPN31 PGTW 191500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 14W (PABUK) WARNING 
NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 191200Z3 TO 221200Z7 AUG 01.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 
AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED 
ON 191130Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. A 
191120Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A 60 
NM RAGGED EYE AND MINIMAL DEEP EYEWALL CONVECTION.  
   B. TY 14W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS 
IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER JAPAN AND IS UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF A POLEWARD ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TY 14W 
IS FORECAST TO RECURVE INTO THIS DEVELOPING WEAKNESS BY THE 24 HOUR 
POINT. THE AVAILABLE FIVE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 
THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES 
PAST THE RECURVATURE POINT. THE MAIN CONTRADICTION IS SPEED. THE UK-
MET GLOBAL GRID-POINT (EGRR) MODEL AND GEOPHYSICS FLUID DYNAMICS 
NAVY (GFDN) REMAINS ARE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. 
THE NOGAPS MODEL INDICATES THE SHARPEST RECURVATURE NEAR 24 HOUR 
POINT AND IS SIMILAR TO THE JMA GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (JGSM). FIELD 
ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD MODEL INITIALIZATION AND INDICATES THE 
EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF TY 14W MAY BE THE CRITICAL 
FACTOR. THE JGSM AND GFDN MODELS MAINTAIN A MORE POLEWARD ORIENTED 
RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL 
ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SPEEDS BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 
OUTLIER, JMA TYPHOON (JTYM) MODEL, HOLDS THE FASTEST TRACK AS IT 
MOVES TY 14W PAST HOKKAIDO BY THE 72 HOUR POINT. OUR FORECAST IS 
BASED ON A SELECTIVE CONSENSUS (JGSM, NGPS, EGRR, GFDN) BLENDED WITH 
PERSISTENCE.  
   C. TY 14W MAY INTENSIFY SLOWLY FOR THE SHORT TERM BUT IT APPEARS 
THAT A FINGER OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY IMPINGE THE OUTFLOW AND 
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT BEFORE LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 48 HOUR POINT.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AND RECENT 
QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA.  
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/MAYER/TON//
BT
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