WDPN31 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 14W (PABUK) WARNING NR 11// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 161200Z0 TO 191200Z3 AUG 01. A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN 86 NM RAGGED EYE. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. B. TY 14W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND SOME WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE JMA TYPHOON (JTYM) AND GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM) MODELS, AND NOGAPS (NGPS) ALL TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE UK MET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR) MODEL TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD THROUGH THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD THEN TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN) MODEL IS AN OUTLIER TRACKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD THEN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. MULTIPLE ERROR MECHANISMS ARE EVIDENT IN THE FIELDS. PARTICULARLY, EXCESSIVE INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING CYCLONE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THEREFORE, DUE TO COMPENSATING ERROR MECHANISMS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL 5 MODELS AND FAVORS THE WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERN RIDGE, WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. C. TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/MORRIS/EDBERG//