WDPN31 PGTW 151500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (PABUK) WARNING 
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 151200Z9 TO 181200Z2 AUG 01.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH OF 
THE ISLAND OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151130Z1 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS 
WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS OF TS 14W. WATER VAPOR 
ANIMATION AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW AND THE 
PRESENCE OF A WEAK ANTICYCLONE ALOFT.
   B. TS 14W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT AND DEFINE TWO DISPARATE TRACK 
SCENARIOS. THE JMA TYPHOON AND GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS CONTINUE TO 
PREDICT A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND A FASTER SPEED OF ADVANCE. 
BASED ON FIELD REVIEW THIS IS INDUCED BY A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPED 
EAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC). THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS-
NAVY (GFDN), AND NOGAPS MODELS INDICATE A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THE UKMET GLOBAL GRID-POINT (EGRR) MODEL 
TAKES THE SYSTEM FARTHER WEST BEFORE TURNING POLEWARD. THESES TRACKS 
SHARE A DOMINANT MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN AND 
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
NOGAPS TURNS POLEWARD EARLIEST BASED ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE EASTERN 
RIDGE. THE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME, AS 
DOES EGRR SOLUTION, SO, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON 
COMPENSATING ERRORS IN A DYNAMIC AIDS CONSENSUS, FAVORING 
THE GFDN AND NOGAPS MODELS. THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AND BETA ADVECTION 
MODELS SUPPORT. NCON CONSISTS OF THE FIVE MODELS DISCUSSED ABOVE. 
   C. TS 14W HAS INTENSIFIED AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DURING THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL 
RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC REPORTS, ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR A VERY LARGE SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/MAYER/TON//
BT
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