WDPN31 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WARNING NR 01// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 140000Z5 TO 170000Z8 AUG 01. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH OF THE ISLAND OF SAIPAN, AND HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A DEVELOPING PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, PARTICULARLY EQUATORWARD. A 132012Z9 QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH EXTENSIVE NEAR-GALE FORCE, GRADIENT WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE LLCC. B. TD 14W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE NORTH- NORTHWEST AND EAST. TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THE THREE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK, HOWEVER THE JMA GLOBAL (JGSM) MODEL SHOWS A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH FASTER SPEEDS OF ADVANCE. THE NOGAPS AND UK-MET SPECTRAL MODEL SHOW A SLOWER, MORE NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SIMILAR TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AIDS AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. BASED ON THE POSSIBILITY OF OFF-SETTING ERRORS IN THE MODELS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSENSUS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SLOWER TRACK OF NOGAPS AND UK-MET SPECTRAL MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS. C. TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 132012Z9 QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS, AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGER-THAN-AVERAGE SYSTEM. E. THE JTWC WEBSITE HAS CHANGED TO: HTTPS://WWW.NPMOC.NAVY.MIL/JTWC.HTML. THIS CHANGE IS FOR SECURITY REASONS ONLY. THE CONTENT OF THE WEBSITE HAS NOT CHANGED. FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/HARRISON/CUTMAN// NNNN