WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (MAN-YI) WARNING 
NR 16// 
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 051200Z8 TO 081200Z1 AUG 01.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (MAN-YI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 149 NM 
NORTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051130Z0 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 TO 115 KNOTS. A 041102Z8 
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I 85 GHZ) DEPICTED A COLLAPSED 
EYE WALL (EAST QUADRANT) WITH AN ASSOCIATED BANDING FEATURE OVER THE 
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
   B. TY 12W SHOULD TRACK WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS-NAVY (GFDN), 
UKMET GLOBAL GRID-POINT (EGRR), AND JMA GLOBAL (JGSM) AND REGIONAL 
TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, AS WELL AS, THE COAMPS, THE NCEP AVN RUN, AND 
THE AFWA (MM5) MESOSCALE MODELS, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. NOGAPS 
(NGPS), HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO SWING OVER TOWARD THE CONSENSUS, 
ALTHOUGH, THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER. 
EXCESSIVE INTERACTION AT THE LOW/MID LEVELS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH 
APPEARS TO BE LESS SEVERE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN. THE NUMERICAL 
CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF FIVE MODELS: GFDN, EGRR, NGPS, JGSM, AND JTYM. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE DYNAMIC AIDS 
CONSENSUS.
   C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH 
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 
   D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR 
AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE JTWC WEBSITE HAS CHANGED TO: 
HTTPS://WWW.NPMOC.NAVY.MIL/JTWC.HTML. THIS CHANGE IS FOR SECURITY 
REASONS ONLY. THE CONTENT OF THE WEBSITE HAS NOT CHANGED.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/BALDINGER/HARRISON//