696 WTPN31 PGTW 020300 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z2 --- NEAR 11.2N4 152.0E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N4 152.0E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 12.5N8 149.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 13.8N2 147.8E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 15.1N7 145.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 16.3N0 143.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 18.9N8 139.3E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.5N7 151.5E2. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 012330Z9 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND BANDING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080200Z0 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1, 021500Z8, 022100Z5 AND 030300Z6.//  363 WDPN31 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W WARNING NR 02// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 020000Z2 TO 050000Z5 AUG 01. A. CURRENTLY, A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 21.3N6 153.1E0, JUST NORTH OF TS 12W IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. B. TS 12W IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE JMA GLOBAL (JGSM) MODEL, NOGAPS (NGPS) AND THE UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS INITIALIZE BEST ON THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ALL THREE MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME TRACKING THE SYSTEM BY THE 48HR FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR DIRECTION AND SPEED OF TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS OF THE THREE DYNAMIC AIDS, THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS, CLIPER, CSUM, AND HPAC. C. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/MORRIS/EDBERG//