WDPN32 PGTW 310300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TORAJI) WARNING 
NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 310000Z4 JUL 01 TO 020000Z2 AUG 01.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (TORAJI), LOCATED 280 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
302330Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 
55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS RAPID WEAKENING OF DEEP  
CONVECTION. TS 11W MADE LANDFALL NEAR FUZHOU, CHINA AT APPROXIMATELY 
301930Z6.  
   B. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
STRONG AND STEER THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD AND FURTHER INLAND OVER CHINA. 
THE NAVY GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS (GFDN) MODEL, THE JMA GLOBAL 
(JGSM) MODEL AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, NOGAPS (NGPS) AND THE UK-MET 
OFFICE (EGRR) MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. GFDN INDICATES SLOW 
WEAKENING WHILE ALL OTHERS INDICATE DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS. THE 
NUMERICAL CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF FIVE DYNAMIC MODELS (NGPS, GFDN, 
JGSM, JTYM, AND EGRR). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS PERSISTENCE WITH 
THIS NUMERICAL CONSENSUS. 
  C. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD 
AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND.
  D. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER LAND AND DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII 
CRITERIA.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/MAYER/TON//
BT
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