WDPN32 PGTW 280300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TORAJI) WARNING NR 10// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 280000Z0 TO 310000Z4 JUL 01. A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (TORAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST OF LUZON, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 272330Z7 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. RECENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS DEPICTS INCREASING DEVELOPMENT AND DEEP CONVECTION, ASSOCIATED WITH 120NM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. B. THE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF TY 11W CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF THE NAVY GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS (GFDN), THE JMA GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM), NOGAPS (NGPS) AND THE UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS. ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. NGPS, JGSM, AND EGRR TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE GFDN AND JTYM TRACK THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A NUMERICAL CONSENSUS OF THE FIVE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE- SIZED SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/PARKER/EDBERG//