WDPN32 PGTW 270300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TORAJI) WARNING 
NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 270000Z9 TO 300000Z3 JUL 01.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (TORAJI), LOCATED EAST OF LUZON, HAS 
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 INFRARED AND VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL 
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT OF A RELATIVELY SMALL (60 NM) CENTRAL 
DENSE OVERCAST) OVER THE VORTEX CENTER. 
   B. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MID-LEVEL HIGH HEIGHT CENTER SITUATED OVER THE 
EAST COAST OF CHINA SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD AS TYPHOON 09W 
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, SOME 
MODIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS POSSIBLE AS THE ROSSBY (PERIPHERAL 
RIDGE) BEGINS TO BUILD. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL 
MODELS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GEOPHYSICS FLUID DYNAMICS-NAVY 
(GFDN) AND THE COLORADO STATE STATISTICAL MODEL (CSUM), HAVE BEEN 
SHOWING A EXCESSIVE POLEWARD BIAS DURING THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF THE 
STORM. WE BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO PREMATURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE 
PERIPHERAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL 
CONTINUE TO STAY TO THE LEFT OF THE POLEWARD CONSENSUS AND WEIGH 
HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE AND GFDN.
   C. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL 
RATE AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE 
SIZE SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/BALDINGER/CUTMAN//



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