WDPN32 PGTW 260300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WARNING 
NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 260000Z8 TO 290000Z1 JUL 01.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 
10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
252330Z5 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 
KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL ANIMATION DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION.
   B. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN THE 
WEAKNESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE JMA GLOBAL, NOGAPS AND THE AVN RUN 
APPEAR TO BE INITIALIZED THE BEST, ALTHOUGH, BOTH SHOW SUBTLE SIGNS 
OF RESOLUTION PROBLEMS MID PERIOD CAUSING A SLIGHT WESTWARD BIAS. 
THE UKMET GLOBAL INDICATES A MORE PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE 
BUILDING BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND 09W BY MID PERIOD WHICH CAUSES A 
MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE 
AND A BLEND OF THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS AND THE FIRST MENTIONED 
CLUSTER. 
   C. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TD 11W IS FORECAST 
TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE 
SIZE SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/BALDINGER/CUTMAN//



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