WDPN34 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 10W (YUTU) WARNING 
NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 241200Z9 TO 261200Z1 JUL 01.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 10W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241130Z1 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY 10W HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AND NOW HAS 
A 26 NM IRREGULAR EYE. A 241018Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER 
PASS DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING EYEWALL CONVECTION WITH DECAYING 
CONVECTION IN THE BAND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 
IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. 
   B. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROVIDE 
THE STEERING INFLUENCE FOR TY 10W. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
THEREFORE, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE 
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSENSUS.
  C. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE 
24 HOUR POINT. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN 
OVER LAND.
  D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND 
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.  
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY//



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