WDPN31 PGTW 250300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (KONG-REY) WARNING 
NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 280000Z0 TO 310000Z4 JUL 01.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 272330Z7 
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. SATELLITE 
ANIMATION DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. 
   B. THE RIDGE EAST OF TS 09W, CENTERED NEAR 30.0N3 173.5E6, IS THE  
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THIS RIDGE HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED 
EASTWARD AND WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A 
DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE BERING 
SEA. TS 09W (KONG-REY) CONTINUES TO TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD 
INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF THE 
NAVY GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS (GFDN), THE JMA GLOBAL (JGSM) AND 
TYPHOON (JTYM), NOGAPS (NGPS) AND THE UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS. 
ALL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR DIRECTION OF TRACK, 
HOWEVER THERE ARE COMPENSATING ERRORS DEPICTED IN THE SPEED OF 
MOVEMENT. NGPS MOVES THE SYSTEM TOO FAST WHILE JTYM MOVES THE SYSTEM 
TOO SLOW. THEREFORE, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A NUMERICAL CONSENSUS 
OF THE FIVE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
  C. TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO COOLER WATER 
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE- 
SIZED SYSTEM. 
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/PARKER/EDBERG//