WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (KONG-REY) WARNING 
NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 260000Z8 TO 290000Z1 JUL 01.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM 
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 252330Z5 
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 90 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND 
INFRARED ANIMATION CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BANDING EYE FEATURE AND 
DUEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS ALOFT.    
   B. MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER JAPAN SHOULD 
INFLUENCE THE TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REGIONAL AND 
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE WITH A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH. SPEED OF MOVEMENT, 
HOWEVER, BREAKS THE AIDS INTO TWO CLUSTERS. NOGAPS, AND THE JMA 
GLOBAL AND TYPHOON REGIONAL MODELS REVEAL A SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER SOA 
COMPARED TO THE OTHER CLUSTER CONSISTING OF THE GEOPHYSICS FLUID 
DYNAMICS-NAVY (GFDN), THE UKMET GLOBAL GRID AND THE AVIATION RUN OF 
THE MRF. THE JTWC FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE TWO CLUSTERS.
   C. THE MODELS AGREE WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE 
PERIOD WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COMPLETED BY THE 36 TAU.
   D. THE WIND RADII ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS, 
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE FORECAST RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY 
OF A TC UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/BALDINGER/CUTMAN//



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