WDPN31 PGTW 110300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING 
NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 110000Z2 TO 140000Z5 JUL 01.
   A.  TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH 
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 VISIBLE 
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. THE 102233Z1 
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS AND ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY DEPICTS MARGINAL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.
   B. TS 07W SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A WEAKENED RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NOGAPS AND GFDN ARE HAVING 
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE LLCC BEYOND THE 24 HOUR FORECAST WITH BOTH 
MODELS TRYING TO DEVELOP A LEE SIDE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
TAIWAN BY 36 HOURS. BOTH JGSM AND JTYM HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT 
OVER THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS WITH BRINGING THE TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWEST ALONG THE EAST COAST OF TAIWAN THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN 
NORTHWEST TOWARD MAINLAND CHINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS TENDING TOWARD THE JGSM AND JTYM SOLUTIONS BY 
72 HOURS. 
    C. NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS OVER THE SYSTEM 
AND CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF IT AT THIS TIME. 
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK INLAND OVER CENTRAL TAIWAN DURING 
THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE ALREADY PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LLCC OF TS 07W. SYSTEM THEN MOVES BACK OVER OPEN WATER 
NORTHWEST OF TAIWAN BY 48 HOURS, HOWEVER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR IN ANY POTENTIAL RE-
DEVELOPMENT. BY THE 72 HOUR PERIOD, TS 07W IS FORECAST INLAND OVER 
CHINA AND WEAKENING OVER LAND. 
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE 
SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/HOLWEG/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY//



NNNN