WDPN31 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 07// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 101200Z4 TO 131200Z7 JUL 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIR OUTFLOW SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. B. TS 07W SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A WEAKENED RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. TWO CLUSTERS OF DYNAMIC AIDS APPEAR AT 72 HOURS WITH NOGAPS AND GFDN FORMING ONE CLUSTER WHILE UKMET, AND JTYM FORM THE SECOND CLUSTER. UKMET AND JTYM MAY INITIALIZED WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PERIPHERAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF TS 07W CAUSING A NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS, THEN TURNING NORTHWEST. THE CLUSTER OF NOGAPS AND GFDN MAY BE EXPERIENCING WEAK CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH THE SYSTEM OVER MAINLAND CHINA BEYOND THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, BUT INDICATIONS OF THIS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS DUE TO POSSIBLE COMPENSATING TRACK ERRORS IN BOTH CLUSTERS. C. AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, TS 07W SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS INTO A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT, WITHIN THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/PARKER/EDBERG// NNNN