WDPN31 PGTW 100300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (TRAMI) WARNING 
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 100000Z1 TO 130000Z4 JUL 01.
   A.  TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
092330Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 
35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, 
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP 
CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 40 NM WEST OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIR OUTFLOW SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.
   B. TS 07W SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A WEAKENED RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. TWO CLUSTERS OF DYNAMIC AIDS 
APPEAR AT 72 HOURS WITH NOGAPS AND GFDN FORMING ONE CLUSTER WHILE 
UKMET, JGSM, AND JTYM FORM THE SECOND CLUSTER. JGSM INITALIZED WITH 
FAIRLY STRONG PERIPHERAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF TS 07W CAUSING A 
NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS, THEN TURNING NORTHWEST. THIS TRACK 
IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO JTYM THROUGH THE 72 HOUR FORECAST INDICATING 
A SIMILAR STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THAT MODEL. THE CLUSTER OF NOGAPS 
AND GFDN MAY BE EXPERIENCING WEAK CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH THE 
SYSTEM OVER MAINLAND CHINA BEYOND THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, BUT 
INDICATIONS OF THIS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS DUE 
TO POSSIBLE COMPENSATING TRACK ERRORS IN BOTH CLUSTERS.   
   C. AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT 
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, TS 
07W SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS INTO A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED 
ENVIRONMENT, WITHIN THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. AFTER 48 HOURS, 
INTERACTION WITH MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES AND 
MOUNTAINOUS LAND AREA OF NORTHERN TAIWAN SHOULD INHIBIT THE 
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE 
DYNAMIC MODELS REFLECT A SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE PERIOD 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JTYM, WHICH INDICATES MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH 
NEAR 72 HOURS.  
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE 
SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/HOLWEG/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY//



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