WDPN31 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 091200Z2 TO 121200Z6 JUL 01. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. A 091200Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I 85 GHZ) PASS DEPICTED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DECOUPLED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SPIRAL CURVED BANDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. B. TD 07W SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A WEAKENED RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. UKMET GLOBAL GRID-POINT, HOWEVER, SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA, WHICH, IN TURN, CAUSES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE REGIONAL AND GLOBAL CONSENSUS THAT REFLECTS A MORE PRONOUNCED MID RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD. C. AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD, UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES MOVING OFF THE COAST OF CHINA SHOULD SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REFLECT A SLOW INTENSIFICATION PROCESS TO MINIMAL TS STRENGTH LATE IN THE PERIOD. COAMPS, HOWEVER, INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM TO 55 KNOTS BY THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. D. FORECAST WIND RADII IS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/BALDINGER/HARRISON/CUTMAN//  006 WTPN31 PGTW 091500 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z2 --- NEAR 18.7N6 125.3E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N6 125.3E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 19.6N6 124.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 20.5N7 124.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 21.3N6 123.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 22.0N4 123.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 23.6N1 122.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.9N8 125.2E0. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. A 091200Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I 85 GHZ) PASS DEPICTED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DECOUPLED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SPIRAL CURVED BANDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2, 100300Z4, 100900Z0 AND 101500Z7.//