WDPN32 PGTW 061500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (UTOR) WARNING 
NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 061200Z9 TO 071200Z0 JUL 01.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (UTOR), LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA 
APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. 
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS 06W HAS WEAKENED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. 
   B. THE MID-LEVEL HIGH HEIGHT CENTER MOVING OUT OF MONGOLIA IS 
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS 
CREATING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. A MODEL CLUSTER CONSISTING OF 
NOGAPS, THE JMA TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM), AND THE UK-MET OFFICE MODEL 
(EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. THE 
JMA GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (JGSM) DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BEFORE 24 
HOURS. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS EXTENDING TO THE 24 HOUR FORECAST 
PERIOD CONSISTS OF THREE MODELS (NOGAPS, JTYM, AND EGRR). THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE NUMERICAL 
CONSENSUS.
   C. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, 
DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY THE 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.    
   D. WIND RADII FOR THE INITIAL POSITION ARE OMITTED OVER LAND.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/MORRIS/SHERRY//




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