WDPN32 PGTW 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 06W (UTOR) WARNING NR 20// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 060000Z6 TO 090000Z9 JUL 01. A. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052330Z3 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY 06W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH NEW CONVECITON DEVELOPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THAT TY 06W IS MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF HONG KONG. B. THE MID-LEVEL HIGH HEIGHT CENTER MOVING OUT OF MONGOLIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS CREATING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AFTER THIS TIME. A MODEL CLUSTER CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, THE NAVY GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS MODEL (GFDN), AND THE UK-MET OFFICE MODEL (EGRR) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE JMA TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM) TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD WHILE THE JMA GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (JGSM) TRACK THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. BOTH TRACKS HOWEVER DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AFTER 36 HOURS. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF THREE MODELS (NOGAPS, EGRR, AND GFDN). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS. C. TY 06W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY THE 72-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. D. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA, A QUIKSCAT PASS, AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE-SIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/WAUGAMAN/WHITCOMB// NNNN