WDPN32 PGTW 030300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 08// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 030000Z3 TO 060000Z6 JUL 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM EAST OF LUZON, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 022330Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TS 06W IS BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 022120Z7 QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT TS 06W IS STILL A LARGE SYSTEM WITH AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF 35 KNOT WINDS IN ALL QUADRANTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD OUTFLOW AND THE INDICATIONS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM. B. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF TS 06W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS STEERING RIDGE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOGAPS (NGPS), NAVY GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMIC MODEL (GFDN), THE JMA GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (JGSM), THE JMA TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM), AND THE UK-MET OFFICE MODEL (EGRR) TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE FEATURE. ALTHOUGH IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THE MODEL FIELDS DO SHOWS SIGNS OF POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE INTERACTION WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO TAKES TS 06W ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF FIVE MODELS (NGPS, EGRR, GFDN, JGSM, AND JTYM). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THESE FIVE MODELS WITH A SOME ADJUSTMENT FOR CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE. C. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AND DEVELOPS A MORE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE STRUCTURE. D. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE-SIZED SYSTEM AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/MAYER/TON// BT #XXXX NNNN