WDPN32 PGTW 021500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING 
NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 021200Z5 TO 051200Z8 JUL 01.
   A.TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM 
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7 INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES TS 06W HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE AS DEEP CONVECTION 
CONSOLIDATES AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS 
DUE TO POINT SOURCE DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM.
   B. TS 06W IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TO THE NORTHWEST BY A 
MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NOGAPS (NGPS), THE JMA GLOBAL 
SPECTRAL MODEL (JGSM), THE JMA TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM), AND THE UK-MET 
OFFICE MODEL (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY TRACK THE SYSTEM 
NORTHWESTWARD. THE NAVY GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMIC MODEL (GFDN) 
TRACKS THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD INITIALLY. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS 
CONSISTS OF FIVE MODELS (NGPS, EGRR, GFDN, JGSM, AND JTYM) IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THESE 
FIVE MODELS. 
  C. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS 
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT.
  D. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE SIZE 
SYSTEM AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY//



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