WDPN32 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 04// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 020000Z2 TO 050000Z5 JUL 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 012330Z9 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TS 06W HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE AS DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CREATING GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM. GOOD OUTFLOW EXIST IN ALL OTHER QUADRANTS DUE TO POINT SOURCE DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. B. TS 06W IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH BY THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER THE 12 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD THE STRENGTHENING MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM WITH THE STORM TRACKING MORE NORTHWESTWARD. NOGAPS (NGPS), THE JMA TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM) AND THE UK-MET OFFICE MODEL (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE JMA GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE ANALYZED THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTER TO FAR NORTH AND IS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER NORTHWARD BEFORE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD. THE NAVY GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMIC MODEL (GFDN) TRACKS THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A FALSELY DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MODEL. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF THREE MODELS (NGPS, EGRR, AND JTYM). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THESE THREE MODELS BLENDED INITIALLY WITH PERSISTENCE. C. TD 06W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. D. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE SIZE SYSTEM AND RECENT QUIKSCAT PASSES. FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/MORRIS/TON// BT #XXXX NNNN