WDPN31 PGTW 010300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W WARNING NR 06// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 010000Z1 JUL TO 021200Z5 JUL 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 302330Z1 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TS 05W HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH NEW BANDING FEATURES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. B. NOGAPS (NGPS) AND THE NAVY GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS MODEL (GFDN) CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL CHINA. THE JAPANESE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (JGSM) AND THE UK-MET OFFICE MODEL (EGRR) INITIALLY INDICATE THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT BY THE 12 TO 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THESE TWO MODELS SHOW A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA. THIS TROUGH WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HAINAN ISLAND AND RESULTS IN RECURVATURE OF TS 05W INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AFTER 36 HOURS. JTWC SUSPECTS JGSM AND EGRR OVER DEEPEN THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CURRENTLY DOES NOT FAVOR THE SHARPER RECURVATURE OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE JGSM MODEL AND JMA TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM) PREDICT RECURVATURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY 36 HOURS. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS IS BASED ON FIVE MODELS (NGPS, EGRR, GFDN, JTYM, AND JGSM). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL FIVE MODELS THROUGH 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS NGPS, GFDN, AND EGRR AFTER 24 HOURS. C. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 12 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND. D. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE STORM. FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/MORRIS/EDBERG//