WDPN31 PGTW 300300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W WARNING 
NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 300000Z3 JUN TO 030000Z3 JUL 01.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 292330Z9 
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
VISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICTS BETTER ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION 
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A SMALL CDO 
MAY BE DEVELOPING WHERE A NEW CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BEGUN TO WRAP INTO 
THE LLCC. ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ON THE WEST 
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. 300000Z3 SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA IN THE AREA 
SUPPORT THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATES. 
   B. NOGAPS (NGPS) AND THE UK-MET OFFICE MODEL (EGRR)INDICATE THE 
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM A MID-LEVEL HIGH 
HEIGHT CENTER SOUTH OF KYUSHU WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH NORTH OF TS 05W 
THROUGHOUT THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE JAPANESE GLOBAL 
SPECTRAL MODEL (JGSM) SHOWS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO 
SOUTHEAST CHINA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. THIS TROUGH WEAKENS THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HAINAN ISLAND AND RESULTS IN RECURVATURE 
OF TS 05W INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AFTER 48 HOURS. JTWC 
SUSPECTS JGSM OVER DEEPENS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 
CURRENTLY DOES NOT FAVOR THE JGSM SOLUTION. ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC 
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE JGSM MODEL PREDICTS 
RAPID RECURVATURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY 72 
HOURS. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS IS BASED ON THREE MODELS (NGPS, EGRR 
AND JGSM). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF 
NGPS, EGRR AND JGSM THROUGH 48 HOURS AND A SELECTIVE CONSENSUS OF 
NGPS AND EGRR THROUGH 72 HOURS. 
  C. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE 
THROUGH 42 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND FROM 48 
TO 72 HOURS. THE UNRESTRICTED OUTFLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 
SYSTEM SUPPORTS CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 
TO 48 HOURS.   
   D. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 291130Z6 QUICKSCAT PASS AND 
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE STORM.
FORECAST TEAM: JEFFRIES/MORRIS/EDBERG//

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