SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 04W WARNING NR 14// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 230000Z5 TO 260000Z8 JUN 01. A. TYPHOON (TY) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST OF CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 222330Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. A 222103Z0 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM 37 GHZ) PASS AND ANIMATION DEPICT THAT THE EYEWALL HAS CONTRACTED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 100 KNOTS. THE TRMM PASS ALSO REVEALED A PRIMARY BANDING FEATURE OVER THE EAST SEMI- CIRCLE. B. A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM MOVING OVER EASTERN CHINA IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE TRACK DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE UKMET GLOBAL GRID-POINT, THE MRF AVN RUN, COAMPS AND THE JMA GLOBAL, HOWEVER, ALL INDICATE DISSIPATION BY THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. OUR FORECAST BLENDS PERSISTENCE AND THE DYNAMIC CONSENSUS WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO. C. AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKE LANDFALL, UPPER SOUTHWESTERLIES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LONGWAVE SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. D. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED RADAR COMPOSITE, MICROWAVE IMAGERY. FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/BALDINGER/CUTMAN// NNNN