WDPN32 PGTW 201500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W WARNING NR 04// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 201200Z5 TO 231200Z8 JUN 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (CHEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST OF THE ISLAND OF LUZON, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 201130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. VISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE STORM CIRCULATION CENTER. B. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM A HIGH NORTH OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, TD 04W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MRF AVIATION AND THE UKMET GLOBAL GRID-POINT MODELS FAILED TO INDICATE A DEVELOPED SYSTEM BY MID-PERIOD. THE COAMPS REGIONAL, NOGAPS, AND JTYM ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODEL (MBAM). THREE MODELS WERE AVAILABLE FOR THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS. GFDN TRACKS THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE OTHER DYNAMIC AIDS WITH SOME APPARENT INTERACTION WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE FORECAST BLENDS PERSISTENCE AND A SELECTIVE CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS AND JTYM. C. SHORT TERM TREND AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. D. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND CLIMATOLOGY. FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/MAYER/TON// BT #XXXX NNNN