WDPN31 PGTW 120300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON) 
WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 120000Z3 TO 150000Z6 MAY 01.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT SAN ESTEBAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
112330Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 112215Z2 
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS (SSMI). THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. 
RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED ORGANIZATION 
OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, 
INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF LUZON IS CURRENTLY 
RESTRICTING IN-FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. UW-
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE SYSTEM IN AN AREA OF 
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR ANALYSIS IS INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER 
THE SYSTEM. 
   B. TS 03W (CIMARON) IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY 
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. 
THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN), UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR), 
JAPANESE GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM), AND THE JAPANESE TYPHOON (JTYM) 
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, INDICATING AN ACCELERATION TO THE 
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NAVY OPERATIONAL 
GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (NOGAPS) MODEL DISSIPATES THE 
SYSTEM AFTER 24 HOURS AND WAS NOT CONSIDERED FOR THIS FORECAST. THE 
NON-SELECTIVE CONSENSUS (NCON) CONSISTS OF FOUR MODELS (GFDN, EGRR, 
JGSM, AND JTYM) AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
   C. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS 
UNDER FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
AFTER 36 HOURS WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE STORM.  
   D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN 
AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/WHITCOMB//


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