WDPN31 PGTW 111500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON) 
WARNING 
NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 110000Z2 TO 140000Z5 MAY 01.
   A. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM WEST
OF LINGAYEN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 6 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. RECENT ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS INDICATES 
TC 03W (CIMARON) IS NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND APPROACHING 
A REGION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
   B. TS 03W (CIMARON) IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL 
RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. TWO FORECAST SCENARIOS CAN BE 
IDENTIFIED IN THE DYNAMIC AIDS AVAILABLE. THE NAVY OPERATIONAL 
GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (NOGAPS), AND THE UK-MET OFFICE 
(EGRR) MODEL TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE JAPANESE 
GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (JGSM) TRACKS THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. THE 
GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN) MODEL AND THE JAPANESE 
TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM) BOTH TRACK THE SYSTEM MORE NORTH THEN NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 
BASED ON THE SELECTIVE CONSENSUS (SCON) OF GFDN, JGSM, AND JTYM. 
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCON TRACK. THE 
ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE WITH CLEAR 
INDICATIONS OF EXCESSIVE BIAS TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE AREAS NEAR 
VIETNAM.     
   C. TS 03W (CIMARON) IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL IT ENTERS A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
ENVIRONMENT SHORTLY AFTER THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. THEN THE SYSTEM WILL 
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. 
   D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED SIZE 
STORM.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/EDBERG//