WDPN31 PGTW 071500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W WARNING 
NR 3//
RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 071200Z0 TO 101200Z4 MAY 01.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF SAMAR ISLAND HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND 
COASTAL SYNOPTIC REPORTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE 200 MB 
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE TD 03W IS JUST SOUTH OF 
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN MODERATE EASTERLIES. 
   B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A SLIGHT 
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE MID-PERIOD. THE TRACK IS 
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE 
NORTHWEST AND STEERS THE SYSTEM FURTHER WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER 
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE FORECAST AIDS ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT. HPAC, CSUM, AND THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION 
MODELS ARE THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
   C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD AS LAND TOPOGRAPHY 
INTERFERES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW. 
   D. NO FORECASTED WIND RADII.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/SHERRY//