SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPN32 PGTW 182100    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z8 --- NEAR 8.8N6 131.7E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N6 131.7E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 9.6N5 131.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 10.4N5 130.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 11.1N3 129.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 12.0N3 128.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 13.7N1 126.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 9.0N9 131.6E1.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OF PALAU WAS RELOCATED 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST POSITION BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
181800Z8 SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SLOWLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED 
ON 181730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY, AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC 
REPORTS OF 20 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD 
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER POSSIBLE MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTERS. THE 181200Z2 SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY WEAK, BROAD 
CIRCULATION OVER THE PHILLIPINE SEA. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES 
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TD 02W SHOULD MAINTAIN WEAK INTENSITY UNTIL 
ENTERING A HIGHER VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE 24 HOUR 
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND COMPLETELY 
DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR 
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z3, 
190900Z9, 191500Z6 AND 192100Z3.//
BT
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WDPN32 PGTW 181500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W WARNING 
NR 1//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 181200Z2 TO 211200Z6 APR 01.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200NM EAST 
OF MINDANAO HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181130Z4 INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION, INCREASING IN 
ORGANIZATION, OVER A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS 
INDICATED BY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM WITH GOOD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST  
PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH. THE ONLY AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AID, NGPS, IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH 
HPAC, CLIP, AND THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODELS, ARE 
THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
   C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD UNDER A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT.  
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/PARKER/EDBERG//