WTPN31 PGTW 200300
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W WARNING NR 009 RELOCATED    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z2 --- NEAR 11.0N2 121.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N2 121.4E8
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   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 11.2N4 120.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
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   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 11.7N9 118.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
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   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 12.2N5 117.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
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   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 12.8N1 116.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 14.2N7 115.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
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REMARKS:
200300Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.0N2 121.0E4.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. TD 01W HAS BEEN RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION, AND IS LOCATED APPEOXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH OF MANILA, HAS TRACLED SPUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 192330Z8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND SATELLITE INTENSIFY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL ANIMSTION DEPICTS AM EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVENTION. A WAEKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AS A SHORT-WAVE THOUGH PASSED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE MID-PERIOD. THEREFORE, TD 01W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTERN BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHWESTWARD BY MID PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSIFY IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AFTERWARD, TD 01W MAY GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND TOWARD THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z2 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 (DTG 200752Z6), 201500Z8 (DTG 201352Z3), 202100Z5 (DTC 201952Z9) AND 210300Z6 (DTC 210152Z1).//


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