SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 190300 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z0 --- NEAR 12.4N7 122.2E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 070 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N7 122.2E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 12.7N0 120.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 12.7N0 119.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 13.0N4 117.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 13.6N0 116.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 15.5N1 114.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 190300Z3 POSITION NEAR 12.5N8 121.8E2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 182330Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICT STEADY WEAKENING OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UW- CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW, SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. LOW-MID LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS, WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS LUZON, IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TD 01W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AFTERWARD, TD 01W SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z0 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 (DTG 190752Z4), 191500Z6 (DTG 191352Z1), 192100Z3 (DTG 191952Z7) AND 200300Z5 (DTG 200152Z0).// BT #XXXX NNNN