SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPN31 PGTW 291500    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291200Z4 --- NEAR 9.6N5 130.1E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N5 130.1E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 10.9N0 130.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 12.5N8 130.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 14.0N5 130.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 15.0N6 130.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 16.0N7 131.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 9.9N8 130.1E5.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 34W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS, AND A SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORT 
OF 28 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT 
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA WITH GOOD OUTFLOW NORTH OF THE 
SYSTEM. TD 34W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH 
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW AFTER 48 
HOURS DUE TO A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TD 34W 
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNDER IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. 
AFTER 48 HOURS, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN 
THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 12 FEET. 
REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT 
WARNINGS AT 292100Z4 (DTG 291951Z7), 300300Z6 (DTG 300151Z0), 
300900Z2 (DTG 300751Z6) AND 301500Z9 (DTG 301351Z3).//



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