SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPN31 PGTW 020900    
1. TROPICAL STORM 34W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 018    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z8 --- NEAR 15.9N5 134.7E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N5 134.7E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 16.5N2 135.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 17.3N1 135.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 18.1N0 136.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 18.7N6 137.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.1N8 134.8E6.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 34W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
600 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF AGANA, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD 
AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED 
ON 020530Z0 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND RECENT 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT RAPIDLY WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION 
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 020440Z0 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING 
MISSION PASS DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION PRIMARILY 
NORTH OF THE CENTER. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS WEAK BANDING SOUTH WRAPPING 
INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY REVEALS TRANSVERSE BANDING JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, 
INDICATIVE OF STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT. LOW/MID-LEVEL HIGH EAST OF 
THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD 
OVER MINDANAO IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
TS 34W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TS 34W SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AS STRONG UPPER
WESTERLIES AND COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM TO 
THE NORTH INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
020600Z8 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT 
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z8 (DTG 021351Z2), 022100Z5 (DTG 
021951Z8), 030300Z6 (DTG 030151Z0) AND 030900Z2 (DTG 030751Z6).//
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