WTPN31 PGTW 011500    
1. TROPICAL STORM 34W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 015    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z4 --- NEAR 15.7N3 133.3E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N3 133.3E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 16.8N5 134.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 17.9N7 136.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 19.0N0 137.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 19.8N8 139.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 20.6N8 141.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.0N7 133.7E4.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 34W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM 
NORTHEAST OF CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM 
IS AT THE TAIL END OF A LONG FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE 
PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME ELONGATED ALTHOUGH THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) STILL APPEARS ORGANIZED. TS 34W IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 34W 
WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR NORTH 
OF THE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, AND 
BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER WATER NEAR THE 36 HOUR PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 (DTG 011951Z7), 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9), 
020900Z1 (DTG 020751Z5) AND 021500Z8 (DTG 021351Z2).//


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