SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 011500 1. TROPICAL STORM 33W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z4 --- NEAR 12.4N7 121.6E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N7 121.6E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 12.6N9 118.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 12.4N7 116.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 12.3N6 113.8E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 11.8N0 111.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 10.9N0 109.5E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.5N8 120.8E1. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 33W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF MINDORO AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CHINA SEA EASTWARD OVER THE LUZON STRAIT SHOULD REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, TS 33W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD. TS 33W SHOULD INDICATE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BY THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, A MONSOON SURGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS THE SURGE INTERACTS (PRESSURE GRADIENT) WITH THE SYSTEM, THE 35 KNOT NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 (DTG 011952Z8), 020300Z5 (DTG 020152Z0), 020900Z1 (DTG 020752Z6) AND 021500Z8 (DTG 021352Z3).// NNNN